Can't stop printing money?!
Recently, the Biden administration proposed that the economic stimulus plan be further upgraded——
From US $3 trillion to US $6 trillion!
Double it!
Is this not inflation?
3 trillion US dollars to 6 trillion US dollars! US stimulus plan upgrade!
According to media reports, US President Biden will put forward his first budget after taking office on Friday, requiring the federal government to spend $6 trillion (about 38 trillion yuan) in fiscal year 2022 and increase the total expenditure to $8.2 trillion by 2031.
The spending is made up of three parts, including the $1.9 trillion American rescue plan, the $2.3 trillion American jobs plan and the $1.8 trillion American families plan.
This continues to strengthen the market's expectation of large-scale "water release". It is reported that this will enable the US federal spending to reach the highest level since World War II, and the deficit will exceed US $1.3 trillion in the next 10 years.
Although there are still many uncertainties about whether the final plan can be finalized, overseas commodity prices rose sharply as soon as the news came out.
According to wind data, international oil prices rose collectively, and the July contract of us oil rose nearly 1% to US $66.83/barrel, a new closing high in two and a half years; Buyou's August contract rose 0.67% to $69.19 per barrel.
Prices are soaring! Raw materials soared by 250%! Global "pay the bill"!
The epidemic has dealt a heavy blow to the global economy and people's lives. All countries in the world have basically adopted active fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery.
According to the statistics of the Federal Reserve, since March 2020, the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have printed US $24 trillion (about 154 trillion) of basic currency and various economic stimulus plans.
The super large-scale water release not only stimulated American national consumption, but also promoted the soaring prices in the United States.
In the past year, domestic natural gas prices in the United States rose by 22%; Timber prices soared by 250%, leading to an overall housing price increase of 11%; With the increase of dining costs, the prices of chicken wings and other takeaway dishes almost doubled.
Inflationary pressures in the US are also shifting to the world. Joseph Sullivan, a former adviser to the White House Council of economic advisers, said that the impact of rising global food prices on developing countries is much more severe, and the government has to make a painful choice between alleviating hunger and curbing the economic impact of the epidemic.
Chemical prices soared 52000 yuan / ton! Imported inflation pressure doubled!
With the crazy printing of money in the United States and the surge of domestic demand for chemical products, the price of chemical raw materials has fallen sharply due to the price rise of bulk commodities repeatedly named by many national departments since this month, but on the whole, chemical raw materials have almost turned red this year.
According to statistics (from January 1 to May 17), 77 kinds of chemical raw materials rose, including polysilicon (+ 52166.67 yuan / T), lithium carbonate (+ 37000 yuan / T), lithium hydroxide (+ 35333.33 yuan / T), lithium iron phosphate (+ 13000 yuan / T) and bisphenol A (+ 9935 yuan / T). Only 15 kinds of products fell, and the overall rise and fall was less than 3000 yuan / ton.
In the context of the gradual recovery of the global economy, the United States continues to print money crazily, and its budget has doubled, which may double the pressure on China to resist imported inflation.
As far as chemical industry is concerned, American chemical industry still plays an important role in the global chemical market. According to the list of top 50 global chemical enterprises in 2020, there are 10 enterprises in the United States, ranking first among all countries, followed by 8 enterprises in Japan, 6 enterprises in China and 6 enterprises in Germany.
It can be seen from the fact that the United States has mastered the core technology and the cold weather in February this year led to the interruption of supply of most factories in the United States, which promoted the soaring price of chemical raw materials. It can be seen that the United States still has a high pricing power in the chemical market.
Moreover, China is a big producer in the world, and the United States is a major exporter of China. The crazy printing of US dollars is equivalent to "free" purchase of our products, which has also caused a certain impact on China's economy. Therefore, in order to resist US dollars and prevent inflation, we may have to do these two things:
1 、 We should stabilize the monetary policy, not issue a large number of excess RMB, and the RMB will appreciate (but the challenge is still great);
2、 Comprehensively improve the technology of China's industrial manufacturing industry, turn made in China into created in China, and enhance China's price voice in the field of industrial products.
The domestic chemical market is expected to enter a period of price turbulence of 2-3 months under the combined factors of cracking down on the problem of bulk commodity hoarding, joint price hikes, crazy price hikes by international giants and continued over issuance of US dollar.
