When many foreign trade people are still "waiting for a better time to settle foreign exchange", it has returned strongly.
The onshore RMB has broken the previous low point and entered the acceleration channel, while the offshore RMB has also broken the previous low point, breaking 6.4 for the first time since February this year.
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The offshore RMB rose above 6.4 against the US dollar for the first time since February this year. It is worth noting that the previous trading day saw a sharp appreciation of 478 basis points.
Since the high of 6.5876 on April 1, it has soared nearly 2000 basis points in the past month! Foreign trade without timely settlement of foreign exchange is very popular!
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According to the data of China foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.4425 on the 10th, up 253 points. The central parity rate of the previous trading day was 6.4678, and the onshore RMB was 6.4589.
01
Reasons for the recent sharp rise of RMB
*US unemployment rate rose in April and US dollar index continued to weaken
According to Xinhua news agency, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has drawn a "heartbeat curve" in the past two months, with the US dollar index acting as a key influencing factor.
The US dollar index "took off" in late February, rising from the highest level of 90 to more than 93. However, it has "fallen" since April and is now below 91. The spot exchange rate of RMB against US dollar and US dollar index continue to show strong correlation.
The U.S. dollar index fell all the way. The U.S. dollar index dropped from its high of 93.441 on March 31 to 90.1467 today, close to its low of 89.6831 on February 25.
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On April 29, the US Federal Reserve announced the latest interest rate resolution, maintaining the three major interest rates unchanged and the scale of bond purchase unchanged until full employment and inflation targets are achieved and maintained for a period of time. In addition, recently, a number of Fed officials said that it is not appropriate to discuss the reduction of quantitative easing measures at present. As a result, the US dollar remains weak against major currencies.
On May 7, the U.S. Department of labor released a highly concerned employment report. In April, 266000 new jobs were created in the United States, which was far lower than the 1 million expected by the market. The U.S. unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 6.1%, while the market had expected it to drop to 5.8%.
The data in April was the worst since 2021, which seriously dampened the hope that a strong economic recovery would stimulate interest rate rise and promote the appreciation of the US dollar. The US dollar fell to a low of more than two months and fell by 0.76% during the day, the biggest one-day decline in nearly half a year.
If the US dollar has played an important role in the recent fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, then the fundamental factors have always served as a strong support for the resilience of RMB exchange rate.
*Under the epidemic situation, China's economy has maintained a good condition and its export has accelerated unexpectedly
According to the data of the State Administration of foreign exchange, by the end of April 2021, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves was 3198.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 28.2 billion US dollars or 0.89% over the end of March.
China's customs also released the latest trade data on Friday (May 7). Exports unexpectedly accelerated in April, and import growth reached a 10-year high, which helped push up the RMB exchange rate. In dollar terms, China's exports grew 32.3% year-on-year in April, up from 30.6%.
After the release of export trade data, both onshore and offshore RMB market exchange rates rose to high levels. Analysts believe that there is a possibility of weakening the effect of export substitution in the future, but the possibility of a sharp decline in the market share of China's exports is very small, and the fundamentals are still expected to give appropriate support to the exchange rate.
02
What is the trend of RMB in the future?
According to the report of Zhongxin Jingwei, for the future trend of RMB exchange rate, the national economic research center of Peking University recently released a report, which predicts that the RMB exchange rate will tend to fluctuate and appreciate in May, with two-way wide fluctuation in the range of 6.45 yuan to 6.60 yuan. Some analysts said that while the US dollar factor increases the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the fundamentals always support the resilience of the RMB exchange rate, which is expected to continue.
According to the report, the overall RMB exchange rate in April showed a fluctuating upward trend. The support of economic fundamentals, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the continuous tension between China and foreign countries are the main factors affecting the RMB exchange rate trend this month.
It is estimated that in May 2021, with the steady recovery of China's economy, the economic fundamentals will continue to provide certain support for the trend of the RMB. However, as the external environment will continue to be tense, the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. The superposition of COVID-19's prevention and control situation in India is severe, which will cause the RMB exchange rate to be under pressure.
Zheshang securities research report predicts that the fluctuation range of RMB / US dollar exchange rate in the second half of the year is 6.5-6.9, indicating that there is relatively greater depreciation pressure. However, the increase of exchange rate volatility is conducive to domestic policy space, and the two-way floating of RMB exchange rate has become the norm.
From the perspective of various factors, there is no possibility of significant depreciation of RMB exchange rate in the near future, and RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will show a trend of appreciation.
In the short run, the rate of RMB will probably continue to rise, but the increase rate may not be very large;
In the long run, RMB may show shock appreciation, with two-way wide fluctuation in the range of 6.45 yuan to 6.60 yuan.
