Recently, the global epidemic situation has rebounded, and the mutated virus is rampant. Japan is experiencing the third wave of the epidemic. The epidemic situation in Oregon in the western United States is worsening, and the epidemic situation in Europe is still spreading. One of the most interesting is India. The novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed novel coronavirus pneumonia novel coronavirus pneumonia cases in India, which has been diagnosed in recent 25 days, and has been diagnosed more than 1 million in the last three days. The newly reported cases of newly diagnosed crown pneumonia were 16 million 960 thousand cases, only after the United States, and 2767 new cases of pneumonia were killed on a single day, the Ministry of Health announced on the day of the data released on the day of the day, according to data released on the day of the day, according to data released on the day of the day of 349691.
India has been suffering from the heavy burden of medical system, exhausted medical oxygen, waiting for cremation in line at crematorium, and a large number of wealthy people fleeing by plane. India, which was once improved in the early stage of this year, has become the "epicenter" of the global epidemic. The Indian government predicted on the 25th that when the epidemic reached its peak in mid May, India will have as many as 500000 new confirmed cases every day. In a paper on the deep causes and trends of the runaway Indian epidemic published in his personal social media late on the 25th, Dr. Zhang said that the greater outbreak of the Indian epidemic is still behind.
According to South + report, it is more difficult to find double mutation virus, and triple mutated virus has appeared in many places in India, which means that three different new crown virus strains combine to form a new strain, which has stronger transmission power than other old strains, This will undoubtedly bring greater challenges to the fight against the epidemic.
Against this background, how will the global capital market with bubbles emerge? Analysts believe that, first of all, the global economic recovery has fallen into recession again, so growth stocks and cyclical stocks may face pressure, but there may be opportunities for conglomerates. In particular, A-share core assets under the background of the fall of the US dollar may be favored by foreign investors; Secondly, due to the serious epidemic situation in India, as a super large spice exporter in the world, the spice industry may be stimulated in the short term. In addition, India is also a very important pharmaceutical producer, and APIs, preparations and other drugs may be sought after.
Zhang Wenhong's interpretation of the epidemic situation in India
The bigger outbreak is still behind
On the evening of April 25, Dr. Zhang Wenhong tweeted to explain the deep causes of the uncontrolled epidemic in India and the trend of the subsequent epidemic.
The number of novel coronavirus pneumonia deaths in India has increased sharply due to the worsening epidemic.
The double mutation of the Indian epidemic virus strain is not the cause of the total out of control of the epidemic.
The double mutant strain of b.1.617 was detected in India since October 2020. It is called "double mutant" virus strain because it contains mutations of e484q and l452r on S protein. In India, the proportion of b.1.617 was higher than that of b.1.1.7 and b.1.351. B. 617 has increased significantly since April, accounting for more than 70%. At present, many countries have banned flights to India. As of April 20, 2021, the double mutation of b.1.617 has been detected in more than 20 countries, and no outbreak similar to India has occurred in other countries. According to the epidemic trend suggested by genome data, the transmission of b.1.617 (Indian mutant) is equivalent to that of b.1.17 (British mutant), which is higher than that of b.1.351 (South Africa strain).
Mortality in India rose rapidly in April
Since April 16th, the number of deaths per day has exceeded 1300, reaching a new high in the daily death toll of COVID-19. The trend is corresponding to the gradual increase in the proportion of B1.617 in India. The daily death toll rose to nearly 2000 around April 25. The main reason is the medical run. When the oxygen supply can't keep up, many young patients may die. Originally, they only need a mouthful of oxygen to survive. What India needs most is oxygen, which is better than any drug, which can reduce the death of young patients.
Whether India can get group immunity through pandemic
As of April 24, 2021, according to official data, the cumulative infection rate in India was 1.16%. It is estimated that it will take decades to reach 70% of the population immunity level. And at least millions more people will die. If this is still the case today after the 1918 pandemic, the government will have to be held accountable by the people. There is therefore a very large uncertainty in the subsequent situation in India.
Does the Indian epidemic mark the failure of the vaccine
According to the study of the effect of mutant on serum neutralization and vaccine, it was found that the neutralization activity of b.1.617 was reduced by about twice as many as the samples inoculated with local vaccine and recovered serum. However, it is still effective for mutants. At present, although the total amount of vaccination in India is second only to that in the United States and China, due to its large population base, the proportion of single dose vaccination is 8.0%, and the proportion of vaccination is low, which can not prevent the spread of the epidemic at present. Although there is a British mutant epidemic in Israel and its effect on the vaccine has declined slightly, today, the vaccination rate plus the protection rate of natural infection or infection in Israel has reached more than 70%, and it is declared that the epidemic is under complete control. It shows once again that the current vaccine is still an important magic weapon to deal with the epidemic situation.
The trend of India's subsequent epidemic
In March, India's social control relaxed, holding various traditional cultural festivals many times, and giving up measures of social distance completely. In addition, when the epidemic just broke out, the government was not active enough to deal with the epidemic, so that the epidemic would develop further in April. Even now, it is too late to speed up vaccination, and a bigger outbreak is still to come. Only by taking extremely strict public health measures, the government should take firm and correct response, and the people can have a good cooperation to survive the current crisis.
India predicts that the epidemic may reach its peak in mid May
The daily increase will be as high as 500000!
According to Xinhua news agency, the India government predicted 25 days that the wave of COVID-19 could reach its peak in mid May. After Maharashtra, Gujarat and New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh will become the next epidemic hot spot.
Indian Prime Minister modi convened the chief ministers of the states with serious epidemic situation on the same day to discuss the epidemic countermeasures. At the meeting, Vinod Paul, a member of India's national transition Council in charge of health, gave a presentation on the epidemic prediction.
Paul said that by the end of this month, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and New Delhi will have the fastest increase in cases. By mid May, India will have 500000 new confirmed cases a day.
"Densely populated states will face special risks, and the health infrastructure of the States will not be sufficient to cope with severe outbreaks," Paul warned The government estimates that there will be a daily shortfall of 16061 oxygen beds, about 2877 intensive care beds and 1450 ventilators in New Delhi. Uttar Pradesh will be short of about 16752 oxygen beds, about 3061 intensive care beds and 1538 ventilators per day.
Paul also described in detail the government's efforts to increase the supply of medical oxygen and drugs. At present, the daily supply of oxygen has increased by 3300 tons, and the number of oxygen tank cars will increase from 1172 to more than 2000.
New crown for prevention and control of Indian soldiers by steam absorption in high pressure pot
Temporary crematorium is set up in the parking lot
Soldiers are using an innovative steam inhalation technology to "disinfect" themselves in a border security force in the state of Jakarta, according to the overseas network, citing India's daily news and analysis 24. In the video, several soldiers sit in front of a device connected to a pressure cooker and inhale steam. Some netizens think the idea is very creative, while others think it actually does more harm than good.
Many patients in the capital, New Delhi, died outside the hospital due to lack of beds and oxygen, according to southern city.
The head of a local crematorium said that the number of bodies received by its institutions has increased fivefold in recent weeks, with many "having to wait in line for cremation.". There is a backlog of remains in many local crematoria, and even there is a shortage of crematoria and firewood. Some family members of the deceased had to burn their relatives' bodies because they had to wait in line for 12 hours.
A medical charity set up a temporary crematorium in the parking lot to cremate the remains of the new crown patients.
Gutendelsinger, who runs the service, said that tens of new crown patients died every day at his institution, and that 60 bodies were cremated on the 22nd“ The scene was so sad that it was too hard to face up, "he said in tears.
New Delhi announced a week extension of "closure"
Xinhua news agency, New Delhi, April 25 (reporter Hu Xiaoming) Indian capital New Delhi chief minister kaijerival 25 announced that the "closure" measures currently being implemented in New Delhi will be extended for a week until 5 a.m. May 3. He said that in the past week, the positive rate of new coronavirus detection in New Delhi was as high as 36% to 37%, but it dropped to 29% on the 25th.
According to CCTV news, New Delhi has been implementing a week of "city closure" since late 19 to control the worsening COVID-19. New Delhi's chief minister, alwend kejerival, said the health system in New Delhi is near collapse, "and" there will be a greater disaster if the blockade is not imposed again. ".
New Delhi, with a population of 29 million, currently has fewer than 100 beds with ventilators and less than 150 ICU beds.
Kejerival announced on 19 that the blockade was imposed throughout the city from 10:00 p.m. to 5 a.m. on the 26th, but the basic living services of residents were not affected. He urged all to remain calm about "sealing the city.".
India Prime Minister Modi made a televised speech on the evening of 20, saying that India is currently struggling with the second wave of COVID-19, but will not implement a blockade in the country. Modi said he would try his best to avoid a nationwide blockade, which was "only a last resort"“ The current epidemic situation is different from that of last year. We should ensure that the economy will not be affected. It is a huge challenge, but we must work together to overcome it. "
Modi said the government is working to ensure the production and supply of medical oxygen. He called on the people not to panic, strictly abide by the epidemic prevention rules, and do not go out in non emergency situations.
The rich fled
Air ticket prices soared 10 times
India was one of the busiest air corridors in the world before the outbreak, according to southern cities. As many countries have cut off flights with India, a large number of wealthy Indians are scrambling to flee before the flight to the UAE is closed, leading to a surge in demand and soaring ticket prices.
According to local media reports, there are usually about 300 commercial flights per week between the United Arab Emirates and India. All flights to India will be suspended from the United Arab Emirates on the 25th.
According to the price comparison website, the price of a one-way commercial flight from Mumbai to Dubai on the 23rd and 24th was as high as 80000 rupees (about 6935 yuan), about 10 times the usual price. The price of air tickets on the New Delhi Dubai route is more than 50000 rupees, five times the normal level, but no tickets are available.
A spokesman for air charter services said the interest of the rich in private aircraft was "absolutely crazy."“ We have 12 flights to Dubai tomorrow, each full. "
"I've received nearly 80 inquiries to Dubai today alone," said a spokesman for the airline, the other charter airline“ We have asked for more aircraft from abroad to meet the needs... The cost of renting a 13 seat jet from Mumbai to Dubai is $3800 and the cost of renting a six seat jet is $31000. "
The UAE has about 3.3 million Indian residents, accounting for a third of the population, most of whom are in Dubai. The UAE Civil Aviation Administration said people from India through other countries must stay at least 14 days at the third destination, "but UAE nationals and passengers on private aircraft are not subject to this requirement.".
Market in the context of epidemic
There are two big changes in the global market in the near future: one is the dollar, the other is the American debt.
First of all, look at the dollar. The dollar index, which has hit a new low in the current round, ended Friday after peaking on March 31.
Second, American debt. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bonds has been falling from a high of more than 1.76 percent since March 30, and has fallen below 1.56 percent so far.
So, what happened in the process? The answer is the ongoing epidemic and vaccine events. French President Mark long announced stricter national new crown virus restrictions on March 31, local time. France officially ushered in the third wave of epidemic. Almost at the same time, the United States has reached the fourth wave. Then there was a vaccine accident with AstraZeneca and Johnson Johnson. Then, there was a third outbreak in Japan and the ongoing "collapse" of India. These events are mapped to the capital markets where the dollar is falling (loose and sustained), and US debt yields fall (inflation is not so fast because demand is insufficient).
With the fall of US dollar and US bond yields, the structure of A-share market is also changing. Recently, many early group stocks have been on the rise, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Pian Ziju, Aimei customers, etc., including the recent Maotai, Wuliangye and Jinlongyu in Guizhou Province. The logic behind this background is that the dollar has fallen, foreign capital needs to allocate more Chinese assets, and what suits foreign investment preferences in Chinese assets is those previously held in groups.
According to wind data, since April, Beishang's net purchase of a shares has exceeded 40.4 billion yuan, and Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, and yaomingkangde have been increased by foreign investors. According to China Securities Company, analysts believe that in the current environment, there may still be some risk aversion in the funds in the equity market, and the money will run to the good stocks that have been repeatedly verified. Growth stocks may have difficulty in getting holistic opportunities.
India is also going to ferment?
In addition to core assets, due to the rampant epidemic in India, some industries replacing India are likely to run out. Among them, there are two major industries worthy of attention: one is spices, the other is medicine.
Let's start with spices. Information shows that Indian spices are the most popular in the world due to their delicate aroma, taste and taste. India has the largest spice market in the world, and is also the largest producer and exporter of spices. There are about 75 kinds of spices produced and exported. The most important natural spices in India are mint oil, peppermint oil, Liulan oil, black pepper oil, Indian basil oil, lemon grass oil, Indian sandalwood oil and root oil.
In recent years, the synthetic spices in India have developed rapidly. Due to the production capacity of bulk raw materials and absolute cost advantages, India has gained certain discourse power in the world synthetic spices industry, especially o-tert-butyl-cyclohexyl acetate, p-tert-butyl-cyclohexyl acetate and suhexyl acetate. Other products with relatively large production are dihydrolaurenol, ionone Benzyl salicylate, coumarin and other musk ring products. If India produces a stop of fragrance, there will be some substitution of spices in China.
Second, medicine. According to China Securities Company, a securities company said that if Indian enterprises stop production in a large area, the areas likely to benefit include: export of preparations, API and CXO. Among them, the preparation is released
